Crude Oil - Technical Analysis 27 January 2008

Weekly Chart
As shown in the weekly chart on the right, Crude oil rose almost $2 last week ending at $90.76. It touched down on support at $85.42, leaving a long lower shadow and forming a hammer, a common reversal pattern. It is now and resting slightly above the 20-week moving average and right below resistance from the midpoint of the solid red candlestick two weeks ago. After breaking support last week, the RSI has recovered and is now back at support.
Daily
As shown on the daily chart on the left, crude broke support at $89.11 and touched down on support at 85.42 before it broke the two week downtrend with two hollow green candlesticks and now rests slightly above previous resistance turned into support at $90.53 at the 10-day moving average. Next resistance is at $91.38 the upper shadow on Friday followed by more resistance at $92.19/$93.02.
Final Thoughts for the Chart
Crude has done a reversal on the daily but did leave a upper shadow on Friday. It has nearby resistance at to overcome at $91.38 and $92.19/$93.02 if it is to move higher. On the weekly chart, crude posted a hammer which is a common reversal patter which requires confirmation. Confirmation of a reversal on the weekly chart could be a hollow green candlestick with an upward gap, a green candlestick closing above previous week’s close or a long hollow green candlestick with a big downward gap.
Disclaimer: this technical analysis is provided as a public service so that people start to understand that oil prices go in cycles and that volatility is increasing which means we may see some drops here and there but the trend is upward and for wider swings. It is not intended to be investment advice. Note also that technical analysis is solely based on chart patterns and that changes in fundamentals such as oil stock inventories can easily overwhelm and alter technical trends.










